We witnessed a slew of positive economic news in the middle of December. ABC News declared during one evening broadcast aired the week of December 12 that the corner has been turned on hiring in the US and that a markedly better economy lies ahead for 2012
On December 15 it was announced that weekly jobless claims fell by a much greater than expected 19,000 to the lowest level since 2008. Small business appears to be shouldering the bulk of the hiring. Manufacturing activity also saw sharp rises in December in several regions of the US.
What’s ahead for 2012?
Good economic reports come and go and usually give only a snapshot view of the economy. There’s always a new economic report coming out to potentially muddy our sense of where the economy is really headed.
Since the advent of another new calendar year is typically the time for forecasts for the year ahead, now’s the time to check in on some of the nation’s economic experts to see how the MA and US economy and real estate markets may perform in 2012.
So what do top economists foresee for 2012? See below for the answer . . .
JP Morgan Chase & Co
In an excellent 18 page report on the Massachusetts economy, JP Morgan Chase & Co gives a pretty upbeat assessment of how MA has fared since the 2009 economic crises. Chase’s take on the 2012 outlook for MA is much better than what it foresees for the US overall.
The report has interesting charts and graphs – well worth a look. Click the image above or the hotlink to download the .pdf.
Key points made by the Chase economists in the report include:
• Boston’s housing markets are stabilizing, helped in part by the robust high tech sector.
• Massachusetts’ economy appears to be on the rebound . . . and is forecast to fare well into 2012.
• The booming technology sector is a plus for Massachusetts.
• The state enjoys some stability from the outsized footprint in a number of services and technology.
Freddie Mac on the 2012 housing market
The economists at Freddie Mac forecast a modestly improving US real estate market in 2012. Sales should be spurred on by a pickup in consumer purchases and a reduction in unemployment.
Freddie Mac says home prices may dip in the first half of the year but should start a much-looked-for rebound during the second half of 2012:
Click the hotlink or on the image above to download the Freddie Mac publication.
“A full-fledged recovery in the housing sector will likely elude the U.S. in 2012,” Freddie Mac economists said in the report. The report goes on to say that “we expect U.S. house price indexes to move lower before bottoming out in 2012, with modest appreciation forestalled until 2013.”
“Still, these national indexes mask the sizable variation in local house-price performance. Some markets have appreciated over the past year and are likely to gain further in 2012.”
Wells Fargo on US real estate and the global economy
In a detailed, highly insightful, 28 page report, Wells Fargo economists delve at length into the role of housing in the US economy and forecast many sectors of the global economy.
Wells Fargo is a bit more cautious than Chase on both the US economy in general and the overall US housing market for 2012. There may be bumps in the road ahead, especially if Europe enters a bad recession. But the report does note unique strengths in the American economic system that it says should contribute to better times ahead in 2013 and beyond.
You can download the report by clicking on the image above or on the hotlink.
Wells Fargo agreed with the viewpoint of Freddie Mac that US home values may fall more in the first half of 2012 but noted that regional pockets of 2012 housing resiliency exist:
“. . . there are a few bright spots (in US housing). The Northeast continues to do relatively well, particularly Boston and New York” (emphasis added).
Below is a long excerpt from the Wells Fargo report on why America may recover much more solidly than Japan did after the Japanese economic crisis back in the 1990s:
“. . . the U.S. economy has achieved some important milestones that could lead to a better performance over the medium term. The Fed has been much more aggressive in fighting deflationary pressures than the Bank of Japan was in the 1990s, and the impact on the monetary base and inflationary expectations is far more constructive than what happened to Japan in the 1990s. Furthermore, U.S. banks are cleaning up their balance sheets at a rapid pace, which will put them in a better position to increase lending, while asset prices are already back to more sustainable levels that can be supported by fundamentals, such as income and rents. The churn of the labor market is making businesses more productive and more profitable than ever, laying the ground work for more balanced and sustainable U.S. growth ahead . . .”.
What does this all mean for you?
The bottom line in all these economic prognostications for us in MA is that both the Massachusetts economy and real estate market should improve modestly in 2012 and will continue to outperform the US market in general, just as they have for each of the last three years. 2012 may not be a great year for the MA economy and housing market, but it may lay the foundation for better years ahead.
A lot of 2012’s actual performance hinges on Europe. If the Eurozone economies muddle through their current financial problems towards a lasting solution that brings stability, all should go well for the US in 2012. Only if Europe enters a deep recession will America likely experience a 2012 worse than 2011.
Copyright ©2011 02038.com
You get more with Warren Reynolds than you do with other top real estate agents. You’ll find in Warren rare knowledge and experience dedicated to helping you achieve all the value that home brings. Warren has a law degree and 20+ years of home selling success in Massachusetts. — talk with Warren today! 508-561-6259
"We have now bought and sold five homes. By far, you have been the best realtor we have worked with. Your professionalism and knowledge are so valuable to your clients. You made this process so easy. "-CB
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and feel in control.
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Get creative with Warren.
Warren is a highly dedicated professional in all his real estate dealings. That means he will continue to serve you well, even when others would compromise on their commitments. Warren’s ultimate goals in business are better transactions and greater client satisfaction. Talk with Warren today! 508-561-6259
"As first time homebuyers we were fortunate to work with Warren. He was a great asset and sounding board. He always gave solid advice. Warren played a pivotal role in helping us negotiate with a difficult seller. We truly benefitted from having Warren in our corner and so will you." -JK
Maximize your home selling success.
All real estate agents are legally and ethically bound to be fiduciaries acting in their client’s best interests. His name stands for integrity and he takes his fiduciary duties to you very seriously. He’ll steadfastly put your interests first throughout your home purchase or sale – talk with Warren today! 508-561-6259
"Warren was always there for us. Throughout the process, Warren kept on top of all our concerns. Warren worked for us, and looked out for our best interest. He is a very professional and caring person." - BP
Feel safe and well taken care of.
Warren is a highly dedicated professional in all his real estate dealings. That means he will continue to serve you well, even when others would compromise on their commitments. Warren’s ultimate goals in business are better transactions and greater client satisfaction. His devotion to excellence can demonstrably improve your home buying and selling decision-making and, consequently, your experience of home ownership. Warren constantly stays current on the local housing inventory. And he is conversant with the broader market trends that affect home sales statewide link to Market Updates. Warren knows that the market knowledge he works so hard to maintain and his high standards of real estate practice help him achieve for you the lasting, true value of home ownership. Talk with Warren today! 508-561-6259
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wait until you hire an amateur.” Red Adair
Did you know you can materially improve your home selling success by choosing your marketing agent and brokerage brand wisely? It’s true! A marketing agent with a sterling reputation, backed by a strong brokerage brand, will do wonders for the reception your home gets upon entry to market. Warren is known in the local brokerage community as a dependable, highly skilled professional who is a straight-shooter. Other agents like working with Warren because they know they can trust him to be a reliable partner in any transaction. And the Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices brand stands for sound decisions and extraordinary strength and stability. The “Forever Brand” brokerage created by Warren Buffet sets the standard for the real estate industry by focusing not on selling more homes, but rather on selling homes for more!Call Warren today! 508-561-6259
"As first time homebuyers we were fortunate to work with Warren. He was a great asset and sounding board. He always gave solid advice. Warren played a pivotal role in helping us negotiate with a difficult seller. We truly benefitted from having Warren in our corner and so will you." -JK
Maximize your home selling success.
Not only is Warren highly skilled and dedicated to protecting your best interests, he will be highly responsive to your needs! He CARES about his clients and is always, always there for them. In person, by phone, email or text, whenever you need him, you’ll get a prompt response from Warren! Warren’s clients rave about the high degree of consideration and attention they get from him. Why not give it a try? Contact Warren now and see how well he takes care of you! – talk with Warren today! 508-561-6259
"I had many, many questions which Warren was always more than willing to answer with a never ending patience. Throughout the process Warren looked out for my best interest. I may have purchased a garden style condo but Warren treated me like I was purchasing a million dollar estate!" -MP
Get the attention you deserve.
Warren is a very creative real estate practitioner and he uses that creativity in ways that provide important advantages to clients. Creatively runs in Warren’s family! His uncle was Harnett T. Kane, an internationally-recognized investigative journalist and New York Times best-selling author of thirty books about the American South. Warren employs his own creativity by producing compelling marketing, both in print and especially online! His www.02038.com, is a highly effective website promoting the wonderful lifestyle afforded by the Town of Franklin, MA. And his Market Updates content on Massachusetts real estate trends gives home buyers and sellers alike the context they need to make more informed decisions about their housing investments. Warren frequently uses his abilities to devise resourceful solutions to the diverse challenges that threaten to complicate most real estate transactions. Warren has made real estate his career and won many sales awards in his 20+ years in brokerage, including the highly prestigious Chairman’s Circle Gold Award and the elite Centurion Award. Experience Warren’s refreshing difference today! 508-561-6259
"Your creative approach to all aspects of my move helped make the transition easy and pleasurable. You were recommended to me by a friend who appreciated your integrity, expertise, friendliness and conscientiousness - qualities that I have witnessed in abundance as we've worked together." -KB
Get creative with Warren.
You get more with Warren Reynolds than you do with other top real estate agents. You’ll find in Warren rare knowledge and experience dedicated to helping you achieve all the value that home brings. Warren has a law degree and 20+ years of home selling success in Massachusetts. His legal knowledge and decades-long experience in putting — and keeping — real estate sales together give him a better handle on the legal, practical and emotional dynamics of the real estate transaction. Warren uses these skills to empower clients to achieve more! He often anticipates and resolves problems BEFORE they can become serious impediments. Enjoy the sense of trust, security and control that comes from having a highly skilled expert at your side — talk with Warren today! 508-561-6259
"We have now bought and sold five homes. By far, you have been the best realtor we have worked with. Your professionalism and knowledge are so valuable to your clients. You made this process so easy. "-CB
Make better decisions and feel in control.
All real estate agents are legally and ethically bound to be fiduciaries acting in their client’s best interests. But many agents give their fiduciary duties short shrift in their quest for the quickest and easiest path to a closing. Not Warren Reynolds! His name stands for integrity and he takes his fiduciary duties to you very seriously. He’ll steadfastly put your interests first throughout your home purchase or sale. This may make Warren work longer and harder for you than most other agents would. But ultimately, Warren’s diligence and attention to detail is his commitment to an experience that transcends the sale. He wants you to have the confidence and peace of mind that comes with having a true fiduciary protecting you. Discover the difference of working with an agent who does not view you as just another opportunity for a commission – talk with Warren today! 508-561-6259
"Warren was always there for us. Throughout the process, Warren kept on top of all our concerns. Warren worked for us, and looked out for our best interest. He is a very professional and caring person." - BP
Feel safe and well taken care of.