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                    [post_content] => What may be looked back on years from now as the home-buying opportunity of a generation continues in Massachusetts real estate.  MA home prices and home sale activity keep slipping in 2011, reflecting weak demand amid entrenched uncertainty about jobs and the national economy.  This under-demand creates a great opening for home buyers to scoop up homes and investment properties at some real bargain prices.

Consensus: prices to fall in 2011, go up in 2012

Last month we saw that a consensus has emerged among housing analysts and economists. The experts agree that home prices in MA will likely fall in 2011 followed by a rebound in 2012.

The real estate market so far has been confirming the validity of the consensus forecast as home prices and sales volume have been trending downwards in Massachusetts.



Greater Boston home prices slip for third month in row

Massachusetts single family home prices have been declining for most of 2011 according to the influential S&P/Case-Shiller Index.  The above chart shows the seasonally-adjusted version of the Index for the metro-Boston region.

At 150.02 on the Index, seasonally-adjusted home prices in MA are now just 1% higher than they were at their 148.59 Index low set back in April 2009.  (April 2011 is the most current monthly reading available from Standard and Poors.)

Home sale activity down as well

The number of homes sold in Massachusetts last month (shown in blue in the chart below) hit a new 9 year low.  The data from MLS-PIN confirms persistent weakness in MA housing demand, making now the smart time to buy a home.  Buyers face less competition in the market, giving them leverage to negotiate a good purchase price.



The sharp spike in home closings in June 2010 was solely due to the expiration of the Federal home buyer tax credits.  Buyers rushed sign purchase contracts before an April 30, 2010 qualification deadline and a lot of those deals went to closing that June.

Without that government tax credit stimulus, MA home sales slumped back down in June 2011.

The only good news last month was the fact that pending home sales in Massachusetts (shown in red in the chart above) rose over 2010 production.  But even with that increase, pending home sale volume in MA remains at depressed  levels.

News the same in Franklin, MA



The chart pretty much says it all: June 2011 was a weak month for home sales in Franklin, MA.

The case for buying in 2011

Bottom Line just published an insightful article on the U.S. housing market:



The upcoming presidential election creates a powerful incentive for the current administration to spur housing activity by encouraging buyer demand:

"The housing market will rebound strongly when the federal government starts to encourage rather than discourage making mortgage loans . . . Next year is an election year. The president is no doubt aware that his odds of reelection improve dramatically if unemployment falls significantly before the conventions early next September. The most effective way to significantly reduce unemployment is to increase home construction, which in normal times provides huge numbers of jobs... and the most effective way to boost home construction is to make it easier for would-be buyers to obtain mortgages."

So prospective home buyers should weigh the advantages of buying in 2011 when so few other buyers are actively in the market.

There are plenty of would-be buyers sitting on the sidelines.  These buyers may reenter the market as soon as signs of a housing rebound become clear.

You'll do best to act while others hesitate - that way you'll get a good home at a great price that you'll likely be bragging about to friends five years from now!

Copyright ©2011 02038.com
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                    [post_content] => The annual Franklin, MA Fourth of July Celebration is much more than a one day event – it’s something really special!  Because July Fourth fell on a Monday this year, the 2011 Celebration was a five day extravaganza beginning June 30 and running through July 4.  Events were held on the Franklin Town Common and throughout the Franklin, Massachusetts Downtown area.

15,000 visitors enjoy the fun

Up to 15,000 were expected to be on hand at the Celebration this year.  There was lots of family fun for kids and plenty to do for teens and adults too!

Here’s a video of the July 4 Celebration at the Franklin, MA Town Common this year:



Variety of fun things to do for all ages

There was a lot of things to see and do at the 2011 July 4 Celebration.

Holiday-goers could enjoy:

carnival rides



games



live entertainment



talent contests



an elaborate fireworks display and



and a super parade.



Video of Franklin July 4 Parade

Here's a video of the 2011 July 4th Parade in Franklin, MA:



The Fourth of July Celebration in Franklin, Massachusetts is just one reason why Family Circle Magazine named Franklin one of the Top Ten Towns in the entire U.S. in which to raise a family!
                    [post_title] => Why the July 4 Celebration in Franklin, MA is something special
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                    [post_content] => The inventory of homes for sale in Massachusetts swelled a whopping 21% in June compared to year-ago levels.  The rise in MA housing inventory this year lends credence to the recently-announced consensus forecast for a possible decline in MA home prices for the rest of 2011.

Home prices to rise in 2012?

But the consensus forecast also calls for a home price rebound in 2012, so what gives?  Is now the time to buy a home in Massachusetts?

The answers may lie in putting today’s inventory levels in context with both 2010 and 2009 supply:



When viewed as depicted in the chart above, the current quantity of homes for sale in MA seems more consistent with a market seeking equilibrium after the end of the Federal home buyer tax credits in 2010 and hopefully getting ready for a stronger 2012.

Supply of MA homes way up over 2010 levels

In the three regional MA markets tracked by this blog, the supply of homes currently for sale is substantially higher than 2010 levels.

Using data supplied by MLSPIN, there is an 11.5 month supply of single family homes for sale in Massachusetts.  This is a 21% increase in standing inventory over the 9.5 months of inventory in June 2010.

The situation is similar in the Town of Franklin, MA (26% bulge in supply over June 2010) and the regional market surrounding Franklin (17.4% increase).

Current inventory comparable to 2009 levels

But today’s housing inventory looks dangerously bloated only if compared to 2010 when supply was depleted by a massive rush to buy homes caused by the two Federal home buyer tax credits.

Once the tax credits expired, the market cooled, sales declined and the inventory of homes for sale began to rise back to 2009 levels.

Compared with the 11.2 months of housing supply that existed 2 years ago in June 2009, today’s 11.5 months of inventory in MA is only 2.7% higher.  This may represent more of a reversion to the post-financial-crash baseline rather than a new collapse of housing demand.

While the current supply of homes for sale in Franklin (up 6.6%) and the Franklin regional market (8.3% rise) is more steeply elevated over where it stood in June 2009, these are small market samples that may be subject to more variation than the state-wide inventory readings.

Time to buy?

Current inventory conditions do seem conducive to weakness in MA home prices for the rest of 2011.

But there is nothing in today's housing inventory levels in Massachusetts that make the forecast 2012 MA home price rise improbable.

So now may be a great home buying opportunity; indeed it is according to:

The Wall Street Journal

Forbes Magazine and

CBS Moneywatch

Copyright ©2011 02038.com
                    [post_title] => Rising supply of MA homes for sale means time to buy
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                    [post_content] => If you’ve been wondering when the Massachusetts real estate market will start rising, 2012 looks to be the year.  That’s the consensus among 111 housing and economic experts surveyed recently by the financial and technology company Macromarkets.

The survey calls for MA home prices to fall in 2011, followed by higher real estate prices in 2012 and possibly for several years beyond.

MA homes price to rise in 2012

The Macromarkets survey covers 384 regional real estate markets across the U.S.  Results are downloadable in a comprehensive .xls file.  I did the download and created the following projection for select regions in MA:



The Macromarkets survey calls for 2011 home price declines on the magnitude of 4.8% for the Cambridge-Newton-Framingham region and 4.5% for Boston-Quincy.

For 2012, Boston-Quincy home prices are projected to rise 2.2% while Cambridge-Newton-Framingham prices are pegged to climb 3.6%

The Worcester region of MA is forecast to experience roughly similar price performances in 2011 and 2012.

2013 and beyond

Macromarkets' survey projections for years beyond 2012 are not provided for individual regions.  But they do exist  for the U.S. as a whole for the years 2013 - 2015:



The survey consensus calls for an increase in U.S. home prices every year from 2012 through 2015.

This upcoming 4 year consecutive run-up in home prices would be great news for the U.S. economy.

Such a rise is tantalizingly plausible and a look at the past real estate market cycle in Massachusetts helps lend credence to the forecast.

A look back to the 1990s

I took the opportunity to look at the Case-Shiller Home Price Index as it appeared after the lows of the last MA real estate market cycle back in the early 1990s; I used the seasonally adjusted Index for this analysis as it strips out the strong seasonal swings that typically influence MA home prices:



The early 1990s in Massachusetts did not see home prices rise in a straight line after the market hit bottom.  Prices zigged and zagged up and down for about 18 months after true bottom before moving into a prolonged upward rise.

You can see in the above chart that after a false bottom in 1991, the Massachusetts real estate market hit its true low point in early 1992.  After rising sharply for several months thereafter, the market bottom of 1991 was severely tested as home prices slipped for much of the rest of 1992.

Home prices surged again at the end of 1992 and early 1993 only to retrench again that spring.

In mid-1993 MA home prices began a pronounced,  long-term rise that ran through the rest of the decade and essentially kept going strong into 2005.

Short intense price surges made the difference

Despite the intra-year price volatility during the early 1990s detailed above, the yearly price performance figures for 1992 through 1995 look a lot like the 2012 - 2015 consensus forecast from Macromarkets.

The Boston Index rose 2% in 1992, 3% in 1993, and 2.9% in 1994.  A further 2.2% price rise in 1995 confirmed that home prices were clearly on the rise in Massachusetts.

The month-to-month volatility in 1991 though 1993 helped mask the overall trend of the market and proves how hard it is to "see" a market bottom while you are living through the events in real time.

Where MA home prices stand today


The forecast 2011 MA home price decline is being confirmed so far this year by the Boston Index.



The seasonally adjusted Index for Greater Boston has fallen 1.5% so far in 2011. (March is the latest month available in the Index.)

The Boston Index now stands 3% below its May 2010 high and only 1.6% higher than the market low of March 2009.

Some real estate experts are saying that the Federal home buyer tax credits helped boost home prices above what would have been their natural recovery trajectory through early 2010.  When the credits expired April 30, 2010, the price inflation ended and Massachusetts home prices began to stagnate.

2011 weakness a buying opportunity

It may be that the lows of early 2009 were the true market bottom in Massachusetts.  Or it may be that 2011 will see new home price lows.

Whatever the second half 2011 brings, the MA economy is doing a lot better than the rest of the U.S. and the consensus forecast is calling for a MA home price rebound in 2012.

There's truth to the adage that "you have to be in it to win it".  You'll never perfectly time the market - if you want to buy, now's the time.

Given the Macromarkets forecast, any further weakness in Massachusetts real estate prices in 2011 should be viewed as a buying opportunity for anyone looking to buy a home or investment real estate in MA.

Copyright ©2011 02038.com
                    [post_title] => Consensus: MA home prices will fall in 2011, rise in 2012
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                    [post_content] => Franklin, MA honored its active U.S. military personnel and veterans on Memorial Day with ceremonies and a parade yesterday.



Good attendance despite weather

Turnout was strong, despite heavy clouds and some light rain in Franklin, Massachusetts.

A wreath was laid at the WWI Memorial at the Dean College campus.



More commemorations were held at the War Memorial at the Franklin Town Common.

Video of Memorial Day 2011 in Franklin, MA

Here’s a short video of Memorial Day 2011 in Franklin, MA:



Youth groups and veterans

Boy and Girl Scout troops of all ages joined veterans in the parade through Franklin’s downtown.



Franklin High School and Middle School marching bands sounded great.



It was fun for the kids while the grownups could reflect on the meaning of the day.

Copyright ©2011 02038.com
                    [post_title] => Memorial Day 2011 in Franklin, MA
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                    [post_content] => Franklin, MA opened its Public Works facility to the public May 21, 2011 for a Touch a Truck event for children.  It was a great opportunity for family fun and to let the kids get hands-on experience with trucks of all description.

Impressive facility

The event was held at the Franklin DPW operations center located on Public Works Way (off Hayward Street in Franklin, Massachusetts).



It's a clean, modern facility that speaks well for the town.

Held in conjunction with Franklin Library book sale

The Touch a Truck was held the same day as the bi-annual book sale benefitting the Franklin Public Library.  The book sale also was conducted at the DPW site.  That was smart scheduling designed to increase attendance at both events.



Video of the event

Here's a short video of the day:



Lots of trucks and a hayride, too!

You could get up close to some specialized equipment.



And also explore dump trucks, backhoes, loaders, rollers and excavators.



Hayride good fun for the kids

A hayride put on by the Franklin DPW was another highlight.



The hayride drove behind Beaver Pond on an access road servicing Franklin’s Well No. 1.



It was interesting seeing this little-known part of Franklin, MA.

Free refreshments included

The clincher for me were the complimentary hots dogs, popcorn and cold milk - what a nice extra for the children!

The Touch a Truck event is just more proof of why Franklin, Massachusetts is such a wonderful place to live . . .

Copyright ©2011 02038.com

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                    [post_content] => Franklin, MA is reaping the rewards of the single stream recycling program it implemented last year. Not only is the system extremely easy for town residents to use, it’s saving Franklin lots of money as well. Compared to more onerous recycling programs used by some other towns in Massachusetts, Franklin’s single stream recycling is a clear winner!



Saving money, reducing waste by making recycling easy

In its first year of operation, Franklin, MA’s single stream recycling program reduced the amount of trash sent by Franklin to regional landfills by 18 percent.  This reduction is saving Franklin taxpayers $100,000 per year in trash disposal costs.  And because the Massachusetts community’s recycling rate has also increased 15%, Franklin is earning $20,000 annually selling all that extra recyclable material.

Franklin’s award-winning program

It’s rare that a government program works so well and saves money too.  The Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection is so pleased with Franklin’s outstanding recycling results that it recently awarded $86,500 to the town to help defray the recycling program’s initial start-up costs.

The key to success and user satisfaction with municipal recycling programs appears to be ease of use.  And nothing could be easier than the single stream system adopted by Franklin, MA in 2010.

Franklin residents no longer need to separate glass and cans from paper.  Everything goes into one large, sturdy recycling container that has wheels and a cover.



The accent is on large – these containers hold a lot of stuff!

A big truck comes and uses a mechanical arm to grapple, lift and return the bin. It's very easy and efficient . . .



Much easier than old dual stream system

 The old dual stream recycling system used by Franklin was simply not user friendly and was not conducive to extensive recycling.

The hallmark of that system was those annoyingly small, lightweight  recycling bins so common with dual stream recycling systems.



Paper went in one bin, plastic and aluminum cans in the other.

The main problem was that these bins didn’t hold very much and had no covers.



Lightweight paper and plastic items frequently overflowed and ended up blowing into neighbors' yards on collection days.  Newspaper and cardboard got wet and soggy when it rained.

On very windy days the empty bins themselves would often migrate down the street and had to be retrieved by harried homeowners.

Easy recycling and trash disposal enhances quality of life

Our modern lifestyle is full of minor nuisances and inconveniences.

It makes no sense to make recycling just another annoyance to be put up with (or even worse to minimize).

The advantage of Franklin, MA’s trash and recycling system is the large, wheeled bins; the trash bin is identical to the recycling bin, just with a different colored lid.

The two sturdy, large, wheeled bins combined make it extremely easy for Franklin, MA residents to increase recycling and still dispose of trash in an efficient, convenient  manner. The system enhances the quality of life in Franklin. It works effectively – just look at Franklin’s recent record of recycling success.

Buy a home where trash and recycling is easy?

People considering buying a home in Massachusetts may want to investigate the types of recycling and trash disposal used in the municipalities in which they are considering living.  Franklin’s easy, highly successful trash disposal and single stream recycling system is just one more reason to buy a home in Franklin!

Copyright ©2011 02038.com
                    [post_title] => Single stream recycling success in Franklin, MA
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                    [post_content] => You might have missed recent news reports detailing positive developments in the Massachusetts economy. This good news has been easy to miss because so much of the news media’s focus over the past few weeks has been on the royal wedding, the death of Osama Bin Laden and continued gloomy reports on the US housing market.

The encouraging local economic trends may have been easily overlooked, but they provide good reason for you to feel optimistic about your financial future in Massachusetts.

Dow up 80% from 2009 lows

Back at the absolute stock market lows of November 2008 – March 2009, there was lots of panic selling by retirees and those nearing retirement who “couldn’t afford lose it all.”



Think of how many of those people must be suffering severe regrets now that the Dow is up so much.  And think of how good you’d be feeling today if you had bought stock in February or March 2009!

The rising stock market may be signaling better times ahead for the U.S. economy - such strong stock market rises often do.

Stock profits raising Massachusetts tax receipts

Surging stock prices and an improving local economy have led to a big rise in tax receipts for Massachusetts this year.



Quoting from the news report:

“In a sign of the growing economy, state Revenue Commissioner Navjeet K. Bal on Tuesday announced that for the fiscal year to date, tax collections total $16.860 billion, up $1.927 billion, or 12.9 percent, from last year, and $732 million more than projections.”

MA economy growing at twice the national rate

The Bay State economy is picking up steam in 2011.  More business activity should start helping the local job market, further bolstering tax receipts and consumer spending.

Below are excerpts from several reports on this:



“Massachusetts' economic growth surged ahead of the overall United States in the first quarter of 2011, buoyed by the state's technology-intensive industries, a report said on Thursday.  The real gross state product grew at an annual estimated rate of 4.2 percent, more than double the national economy's expansion of 1.8 percent, said the study by MassBenchmarks, a quarterly journal published by the University of Massachusetts."



"A new report says the Massachusetts economy expanded more than twice as fast as the nation's as a whole in the first quarter of the year, driven largely by the technology sector.

The University of Massachusetts report released Thursday said global demand for technology products and increased business spending on software and equipment have provided a boost for the state."



"This past month, the University of Massachusetts' MassBenchmarks journal showed the Bay State is doing very well, thank you, as it ships its tech wares across the globe, including various software and equipment. The state's so-called "growth premium," says the journal, "appears largely to be a function of the strength of the Massachusetts innovation economy that, unlike in recent recessions, helped buffer Massachusetts from the 'Great Recession' and has been a growing driver during the recovery period."

MA business confidence rises

Confidence among MA businesses has risen to its highest level since 2007, reflecting improving conditions in the Bay State.



Quoting from the article:

"Associated Industries of Massachusetts Business Confidence Index was 56.1 points in April, up 2.1 points from 54 points in March. Associated Industries plots business confidence on a scale of 1 to 100 where 50 is neutral and anything greater than 50 is positive."

Putting this all together - time to invest?

The good economic news should perhaps spur you to consider smart  contrarian investing to take advantage of the pessimistic sentiment  about real estate so prevalent during these times of continued  uncertainty.

Contrarian investing is a time-honored way to build investment profits by buying when negativity predominates and selling when others are overly enthusiastic about buying.

Take the stock market: the time to buy was February and March 2009 when everyone was saying "sell", the Dow was at its lows and pessimism was rampant.

Stocks have had a such a strong run-up, so instead of chasing stocks, look at real estate in MA while the market is still weak.

MA home prices certainly are down.  And the local economy is continuing to improve.

How about buying an inexpensive condo or multi-family home as an investment property?  If you're not ready to be a landlord, perhaps now's a good time to trade up to a better home.

Contact Warren to learn more!

Copyright ©2011 02038.com
                    [post_title] => Good news on MA economy you may not have heard
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                    [post_content] => Greater Boston home prices took a tumble in the most recent release of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.  The decline in Boston home prices is encouraging news for those skeptical local home buyers who continue to sit on the fence this spring  hoping for lower Boston home values ahead.

2 versions of the Case-Shiller Index

There are two versions of the Case-Shiller Index published each month.

One version does not account for seasonal variations in Massachusetts home prices.  The other version is seasonally adjusted and seeks to remove seasonal price distortions which are pretty pronounced in Massachusetts due to the tough winter climate.  Each is published with a two month lag; February is currently the most recent reporting period available for the Index.

Unadjusted Index looks scary, but is distorted

Using the unadjusted Index, the Greater Boston numbers look bad.



February saw the eighth straight monthly decline in Greater Boston home prices as tracked by Case-Shiller.  The unadjusted Boston Index now has surrendered all its gains of 2010. At 149.86 the Index is at its lowest reading since June 2009.

But as we have noted before and as is clearly demonstrated on the chart, the unadjusted Index for Boston suffers from strong seasonal distortions.

There is a pronounced pattern in the unadjusted Index: every year the Boston Index declines in the fall into the late winter.   And in the early spring into the late summer, the unadjusted Index rises.

Seasonally adjusted Index down as well

The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller Index for Boston generally gives a more accurate picture of Greater Boston home prices.

However, even with the seasonal variations stripped out of the data, the Index for February still showed a decline in Greater Boston home prices.



Bear in mind that February did feature horrible winter weather with heavy snow and ice storms.  The bad weather did adversely affect home sales.

So we may want to withhold making any firm judgments regarding Greater Boston home prices until the results for March and April are in the books.  Given the two month lag in producing the Case-Shiller Index, we will have to wait until June to get a firm fix on spring 2011 Massachusetts home prices.

What to do this spring - for sellers

No matter what upcoming Index readings may look like, one thing is clear: this spring is not shaping up to be a strong sellers’ market.

Properly priced homes are selling, and some are selling rapidly.

But over-priced homes in the Greater Boston region face a decidedly difficult outlook given what appears to be at least a temporary downwards bias in local home values.

CNN-Money has a good article on how to sell your home in this adverse market:

Price your home aggressively

The article advises home sellers whose homes have sat unsold on the market for over 30 days to bite the bullet and drop their asking prices to make their homes compelling.

What to do this spring - for buyers


You make your luck only when you act.

The bottom line is that home buyers should be able to strike advantageous deals over the next few months.

Timing is everything, so if the time is right for you to buy - act!

Today’s smart buyers may want to lock in currently low mortgage rates and grab one of today’s good homes that are available at some very good prices.

Copyright ©2011 02038.com
                    [post_title] => Greater Boston home prices fall
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                    [post_content] => It would take 10 and a half months for all the single family homes currently for sale in Massachusetts to find buyers according to data maintained by MLSPIN, the largest MLS system in the Bay State.  That’s a nearly 17% jump in housing inventory levels from last year at this time.

2010 housing inventory reduced by home buying rush

Last April there were 9 months of housing supply in MA.  Housing supply was whittled down last April by a home buying surge as buyers across the state rushed to secure homes to qualify for the then-expiring Federal home buyer tax credits.



With the tax credits and the April 2010 buying binge now just fading memories, Massachusetts housing inventory has risen roughly back in line with April 2009 levels.  Seen in this context, the increased inventory of homes for sale in Massachusetts compared to last year may not represent a worrisome new trend, so much as a return to a slower pace of home sales in the absence of the Federal tax credits’ stimulus.

Inventory up in I-495 market around Franklin

According to MLSPIN, the standing inventory of homes for sale in the greater Franklin, MA region has also bulged this year.

There are currently 11.3 months of supply of single family homes for sale in the I-495 communities surrounding Franklin, compared to 9.4 months last April.

Just as with Massachusetts overall, this increase puts the region’s housing inventory on par with April 2009’s levels.

In the Town of Franklin, MA itself, there are 10.8 months of homes for sale this April (compared to 7.7 months last year at this time and 9.4 months back in April 2009).

Absorption rate analysis may be misleading this spring

Tracking changes in housing inventory is one time-honored way to monitor the health of the real estate market. (Click the hotlink to learn more about absorption rate analysis.)

Rising inventory traditionally is cited as a sign of a real estate market in trouble.

Housing inventory today certainly is higher than it was one year ago.

However, traditional absorption analysis may provide an overly pessimistic take on the future direction real estate in Massachusetts in 2011.

Two factors to weigh

There are two factors lending credence to the suggestion to discount the importance of today’s higher inventory levels.

Back in April 2010, housing inventory was depleted by that home buying rush to qualify for the Federal home buyer tax credits.  So April 2010 is arguably a poor measure against which to judge the real estate market in April 2011.

Secondly, the 2011 home buying season has been slow to start.

In past years, the “spring” market sometimes has gotten under way as early as mid-February.

This January and February saw very heavy snowfall.  Protracted periods of bad weather lingered well into March.  This has slowed the advent of home buyer activity this spring.

So a ‘wait and see’ attitude with absorption rate analysis appears warranted.

Market watchers should check back with this blog in coming months for upcoming hosing inventory reports.

We will watch the local real estate market with a keen eye, looking very carefully for some much-hoped-for signs of gathering strength.

Copyright ©2011 02038.com
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            [post_content] => What may be looked back on years from now as the home-buying opportunity of a generation continues in Massachusetts real estate.  MA home prices and home sale activity keep slipping in 2011, reflecting weak demand amid entrenched uncertainty about jobs and the national economy.  This under-demand creates a great opening for home buyers to scoop up homes and investment properties at some real bargain prices.

Consensus: prices to fall in 2011, go up in 2012

Last month we saw that a consensus has emerged among housing analysts and economists. The experts agree that home prices in MA will likely fall in 2011 followed by a rebound in 2012.

The real estate market so far has been confirming the validity of the consensus forecast as home prices and sales volume have been trending downwards in Massachusetts.



Greater Boston home prices slip for third month in row

Massachusetts single family home prices have been declining for most of 2011 according to the influential S&P/Case-Shiller Index.  The above chart shows the seasonally-adjusted version of the Index for the metro-Boston region.

At 150.02 on the Index, seasonally-adjusted home prices in MA are now just 1% higher than they were at their 148.59 Index low set back in April 2009.  (April 2011 is the most current monthly reading available from Standard and Poors.)

Home sale activity down as well

The number of homes sold in Massachusetts last month (shown in blue in the chart below) hit a new 9 year low.  The data from MLS-PIN confirms persistent weakness in MA housing demand, making now the smart time to buy a home.  Buyers face less competition in the market, giving them leverage to negotiate a good purchase price.



The sharp spike in home closings in June 2010 was solely due to the expiration of the Federal home buyer tax credits.  Buyers rushed sign purchase contracts before an April 30, 2010 qualification deadline and a lot of those deals went to closing that June.

Without that government tax credit stimulus, MA home sales slumped back down in June 2011.

The only good news last month was the fact that pending home sales in Massachusetts (shown in red in the chart above) rose over 2010 production.  But even with that increase, pending home sale volume in MA remains at depressed  levels.

News the same in Franklin, MA



The chart pretty much says it all: June 2011 was a weak month for home sales in Franklin, MA.

The case for buying in 2011

Bottom Line just published an insightful article on the U.S. housing market:



The upcoming presidential election creates a powerful incentive for the current administration to spur housing activity by encouraging buyer demand:

"The housing market will rebound strongly when the federal government starts to encourage rather than discourage making mortgage loans . . . Next year is an election year. The president is no doubt aware that his odds of reelection improve dramatically if unemployment falls significantly before the conventions early next September. The most effective way to significantly reduce unemployment is to increase home construction, which in normal times provides huge numbers of jobs... and the most effective way to boost home construction is to make it easier for would-be buyers to obtain mortgages."

So prospective home buyers should weigh the advantages of buying in 2011 when so few other buyers are actively in the market.

There are plenty of would-be buyers sitting on the sidelines.  These buyers may reenter the market as soon as signs of a housing rebound become clear.

You'll do best to act while others hesitate - that way you'll get a good home at a great price that you'll likely be bragging about to friends five years from now!

Copyright ©2011 02038.com
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